BMI is cautiously optimistic about the mineral products market in 2026.

According to a report by Mining.com, Fitch’s Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI) is cautiously optimistic about the outlook for minerals and metals in 2026. Analysts expect that, driven by reduced tariff uncertainties, strong demand from industries linked to the zero-emissions transition, and tight supply conditions, prices for most minerals and metals will rise.

In its year-end report, BMI analysts noted, “As trade tensions ease and the global economy stabilizes, average prices for most minerals and metals in 2026 are expected to be higher than in 2025.”
 
In August 2025, tariff uncertainty will reach its peak. Although BMI believes that conflicts between the U.S. and several economies may persist over the coming quarters, the company’s country risk assessment team expects tariff uncertainty to likely continue declining in 2026.
 
BMI pointed out that, overall, this will boost demand for commodities. However, the company also noted that volatility cannot be ruled out, particularly in the case of certain metals that may face new tariff pressures imposed by the U.S. to protect its domestic critical industries.

“In particular, we believe copper may face higher tariffs. The U.S. Department of Commerce is required to submit its domestic copper market report by June 30, 2026, to determine whether to impose a uniform tariff of 15% on refined copper in 2027 and 30% in 2028,” the analyst said.
 
The outlook for precious metals is promising.

As for precious metals, analysts believe that although gold prices are expected to rise in 2026 compared to 2025, they will decline later this year as monetary easing slows down—particularly as the Federal Reserve eventually stops cutting interest rates.
 
“As the monetary easing policies that began in 2024 gradually tighten—particularly as the Federal Reserve eventually stops cutting interest rates—prices will fall below $4,000 per ounce later in 2026.”
 
Fitch pointed out that as the global economy gradually stabilizes in 2026 and tariff uncertainties subside, the weakening trend of the U.S. dollar will come to an end, and the historic rally in gold will also come to a halt in the third quarter of 2026.
 
“Our country risk team believes that the U.S. dollar index (DXY) will no longer experience the same sharp fluctuations in 2026 as it did in early 2025, which will inevitably curb the rise in industrial and precious metal prices.”

“Although we still expect the DXY to fluctuate between 95 and 100 over the next few quarters, a slight strengthening cannot be ruled out—especially if the U.S. economy performs better than expected, which would limit the extent of gold’s price increase.”

Fitch also pointed out that, given the challenges posed by shifting external demand and the risk of global growth falling short of expectations, metal prices are more likely to decline in 2026.

“We expect that by 2026, the West will increase investment in both domestic and resource-rich countries while also forging new strategic partnerships to secure future supplies. As competition for critical minerals intensifies, industrial policies have become the primary tool for countries to safeguard their resource security.”

Mergers and Acquisitions Trends

Fitch analysts expect competition for critical minerals to intensify further, and the robust M&A momentum in the metals and mining sector will continue through 2026. The industry is seizing every opportunity to enter the minerals crucial for the energy transition, including—but not limited to—copper, lithium, and rare earth elements.

The report states that large-scale investment projects remain the focal point, but there is also growing emphasis on risk mitigation.

“We expect mining projects in emerging market countries to remain investment targets in 2026. Although resource nationalism has been a significant challenge for some time, we believe that governments and local communities in relevant countries—including those in Africa—have become more aware of their mineral resources and have gained greater bargaining power.”

Compared to previous years, mineral processing has made greater progress, leaving global investors with no choice but to adapt to changes in the mineral policies of relevant countries.

The company predicts that in 2026, metals and mining projects will benefit from collaborations with technology, automotive, and aerospace companies— including through offtake agreements—because supply bottlenecks could hinder progress in fields such as AI, robotics, and defense.