BMI is cautiously optimistic about the global mining industry's outlook for next year.

According to Mining Weekly, BMI, the benchmark minerals intelligence unit under Fitch Solutions, is cautiously optimistic about the outlook for most metals next year. It forecasts that prices for most minerals and metals will see a modest increase, primarily driven by reduced tariff uncertainty, strong industry demand related to the net-zero emissions transition, and tight supply conditions.

In the report “Mining and Metals Key Themes For 2026: Global Economic Stability to Drive Gains,” BMI forecasts that gold prices will continue to rise next year; however, in the later stages, as monetary easing policies shift—particularly as the Federal Reserve eventually stops cutting interest rates—the upward momentum of gold prices will weaken.

BMI stated, “We forecast that average prices for most minerals and metals in 2026 will be higher than in 2025, as the global economy stabilizes with a reduction in trade tensions.”

“Tariff uncertainty peaked in August 2025. Although trade tensions may re-emerge in the coming quarters between the U.S. and other economies, our country risk team expects tariff uncertainty to continue declining in 2026.”

BMI added that, overall, this will support demand for commodities, but it does not rule out the possibility of volatility—particularly for certain metals that could be affected by U.S. tariffs aimed at protecting domestic critical industries.

BMI particularly emphasized that copper could be affected by the proposed tariff increases. The U.S. Secretary of Commerce is required to submit a report by June 30, 2026, detailing the latest developments in the domestic copper market, in order to determine whether to impose a 15% tariff on refined copper starting in 2027 and a 30% tariff starting in 2025.

Regarding precious metals, BMI points out that weak U.S. employment data could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its December meeting, and gold prices are expected to continue rising through 2026.

In other words, the company predicts that gold prices will fall below $4,000 per ounce later in 2026, as the accommodative monetary policies since 2024 begin to tighten—particularly as the Federal Reserve may eventually stop cutting interest rates.

“As the global economy further stabilizes in 2026, tariff uncertainties ease, and the U.S. dollar stops depreciating, gold’s record-breaking upward trend will come to an end in the third quarter of 2026.”

“Indeed, our country risk team believes that the U.S. dollar index (DXY) will not experience fluctuations similar to those in 2025 in 2026, thereby curbing the rise in industrial and precious metal prices.”

Although BMI still expects the DXY to fluctuate between 95 and 100 over the next few quarters, it does not rule out the possibility of a stronger move, particularly if the U.S. economy performs better than expected.

This will curb gold prices from continuing to rise.

BMI believes that unforeseen supply disruptions, trade restrictions exceeding expectations, and stimulus measures stronger than anticipated remain the primary risks driving its upward revision of forecasts.

Main points

The report also points out that in 2026, industrial policies will remain the primary means by which countries secure critical minerals, with most of these coming from the European Union and the United States.

BMI believes that governments around the world will adopt a two-pronged approach: expanding domestic production capacity while simultaneously stabilizing overseas supplies through investment and strategic partnerships.

In addition, BMI forecasts that, as competition for critical minerals intensifies, the strong M&A momentum in the metals and mining industry will continue through 2026. Industry players will prioritize minerals essential for the energy transition, including—but not limited to—copper, lithium, and rare earth elements.

Large-scale investment projects remain the primary focus, but development projects aimed at risk avoidance are also under consideration.

BMI is expected to continue investing in mining projects in frontier markets in 2026.

“Although resource nationalism has been the biggest concern for some time now, we believe that governments and local communities—in Africa and elsewhere—are becoming increasingly aware of their mineral resources and gaining greater bargaining power.”

“Compared to previous years, ore beneficiation and metallurgy have received greater attention, leaving global mining investors with no choice but to adapt to the changing mineral policies of these countries.”

“In 2026, metal and mining projects will reap greater benefits from collaborations with technology, automotive, and aerospace companies—including through offtake agreements—because supply bottlenecks will hinder the development of key sectors such as AI, robotics, and defense.”